The five-minute briefing on the biggest political, business and economic stories.

01 — OPENING

Morning all. We're back for another issue of The Early Viewer and it's even more exciting than the new Avengers trailer (which Steve Rogers even is that?) OK, maybe not quite as exciting, but it's pretty good. Main thing to know is that over on Threadneedle Street, Bank officials are currently deliberating over recent inflation and earnings data ahead of next Thursday's MPC meeting. The inflation picture is fairly stable and wage growth has slowed, but with renewed tensions in Iran further inflationary pressure could be to come. We'll have to wait and see what the Bank decides next Thursday.

02 — MARKETS & THE NUMBER

03 — THE LEAD

Inflation and labour market data suggest easing price pressures ahead of Bank decision

Wednesday's inflation data, coupled with the ONS' earnings release on Tuesday, point towards an easing of domestic pricing pressures ahead of the Bank of England's rates decision next week.

Wednesday's release shows that headline inflation (CPI) fell to 2.6% in June, as compared with 2.8% year-on-year inflation in May. Monthly prices went up by 0.1% in June, which was lower than June 2025's monthly increase of 0.3% on May 2025. CPIH (which includes owner-occupier's housing costs) was 2.8%. Core CPI (which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco) was 2.6%, suggesting underlying domestic inflationary pressures remain.

The inflation figures provide a substantive data point for the Bank of England ahead of next week's MPC meeting. It follows Tuesday's labour market release, which showed that wage growth had slowed to 3.4% from March to May 2026 as compared with 5.9% in early 2025. The overall picture therefore indicates wage pressures having eased markedly coupled with relatively stable inflation.

The Bank has a few options.

The first option would be to stick at 3.75%. This would be on the basis that inflation is stable and the wage-price spiral that the Bank previously feared (where increased costs cause workers to demand higher wages, pushing up prices, causing workers to demand ever higher wages) does not appear to have taken hold.

It could keep open the possibility of higher rates if renewed tensions involving Iran lead to persistently higher energy prices that begin feeding into domestic inflation.

It could lower interest rates, which would reduce the cost of mortgages and loans and free up money for consumers to spend, although this would potentially create inflationary pressure at a time when the Bank is seeking the opposite.

04 — THE CITY

Lloyd's finds Neal breached compliance rules over undisclosed relationship

The perception of a potential conflict was enough that John Neal should have disclosed his connection with Rebekah Clement, who was the Corporate Affairs Director at Lloyd's.

That was the decision made by Lloyd's of London, which concluded that Neal's failure to do so was a breach of their compliance rules and procedures. This followed an internal review, in which Lloyd's investigated itself and admitted governance failings in connection with the undisclosed relationship.

It should be stressed that the decision was made under Lloyd's rules as opposed to a regulatory finding.

Regulated firms will be aware however that non-financial misconduct has become an area of increased FCA scrutiny, with new non-financial misconduct rules coming into effect in September.

05 — THE BUSINESS END

World Cup fever boosts Wetherspoons but profits expected to dip

Wetherspoons sales are up but inflationary pressure is expected to impact on total year profits.

According to the company's pre-close trading update on Wednesday, like-for-like sales (i.e., measuring comparable units open in the current and previous period) were up 4% in the twelve weeks to 19 July and 4.2% year-to-date.

However, profits are expected to be below market expectations due to marginally lower sales in the final quarter and increased costs for food, labour, repairs, energy, and business rates.

Wednesday's ONS release shows that inflation in the hospitality sector is slightly above the overall headline, reflecting the pricing environment Wetherspoons is operating in. The Wetherspoons update suggests the company may be unable or unwilling to offset higher input costs with increased prices, despite inflation being the wider trend across the hospitality sector.

06 — INTERNATIONAL

Trump's battle moves to Capitol Hill

The latest Appropriations Committee hearing was about more than defence spending. It marked the point at which the battleground over the war with Iran moved to Congress.

Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth told committee members the conflict had cost the US around $37.5bn and said the Pentagon needs another $87bn. The administration is now not only facing questions about whether it can wage the war, but also whether Congress is willing to fund it.

That shifts the battlefield to Capitol Hill. Democrats have questioned both the strategy and the growing cost of the conflict, while some Republican fiscal conservatives are uneasy about approving more spending without making cuts elsewhere. Hegseth argues that failing to approve the funds would leave the military unable to invest in equipment and maintain training and operations.

The administration's next challenge is therefore political as well as military. With Congress not due to reconvene until September, the next phase of the conflict will be fought through appropriations rather than on the battlefield.

07 — QUICK HITS

Prologis makes one final offer Prologis have reacted to Wednesday's takeover deadline with one final offer of £14bn for real estate firm Segro.	OpenAI agent goes rogue One of OpenAI's agents hacked a start-up, Hugging Face, during the course of a security test it was being subject to.
Burnham's bus fare cap The Prime Minister announced a £2 cap on bus fares which will apply from January.	Social media ban for French -15s The French parliament has passed a law banning social media for under-15s from January 2027.

08 — THE TAKE

09 — SIGN-OFF

So, there you have it. Hope we lived up to the trailer and Thursday doesn't become your own personal doomsday.

Until tomorrow,
Sean