The five-minute briefing on the biggest political, business and economic stories.

01 — OPENING

Happy Friday, all. Drinks are on Andy, as the Prime Minister announces a 20 per cent rates cut for pubs, clubs and music venues. It only applies from April, so all the more reason to get the orders in and do your bit for the UK economy. Speaking of which, Thursday's oil price hikes have added another spanner into the inflationary picture. Houthi attacks on two Saudi vessels have left markets wondering whether we have another front in the Middle East conflict or if this is just temporary disruption. Despite higher energy prices, the ECB decided to hold rates. We'll have to wait and see whether the Bank of England follow suit next week.

02 — MARKETS & THE NUMBER

03 — THE LEAD

Oil price spike gives central bankers food for thought

For anyone buoyed by Wednesday's inflation figures, Thursday's spike in oil prices, driven by Houthi attacks on two Saudi oil tankers, won't have exactly helped.

Brent crude rose to $100 a barrel during Thursday, with oil traders now increasingly worried the attacks mark the start of a new front in the conflict. So far, the Strait of Hormuz has been the main choke point with pressure on Iranian oil supplies feeding indirectly into higher oil prices overall. The Houthi strikes will raise concerns that the conflict could start affecting other key oil routes in the region.

Just as the Strait of Hormuz is a vital shipping route for Gulf oil exports, the Bab el-Mandeb is a critical gateway between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia has been clear that it will protect key ports and trading routes but the threat of further Houthi aggression has nonetheless spooked global oil markets. By Thursday, US strikes in Iran had reached their twelfth consecutive night, following the end of the temporary ceasefire agreement. The attacks on Saudi vessels won't just raise fears about higher oil prices, they will also give central bankers another inflation headache ahead of next week's Bank of England decision.

The Bank of England was clear in its previous MPC decision in June that it cannot control oil prices directly. The Bank's goal instead is to try and prevent inflationary pressure caused by external shocks such as higher oil prices becoming a more persistent feature of the UK economy. The idea is that higher interest rates can help to temper consumer demand, lower prices for a while, and ease wage pressures on employers. Recent data in the UK may have slightly buoyed the Bank of England with wage growth less than in early 2025 and inflation relatively flat. The Houthi attack will come as a timely reminder that oil markets remain volatile, and that disruption could get worse.

04 — THE BUSINESS END

An offer they couldn't refuse

The (ever so slightly) drawn out takeover involving real estate firms, Prologis and Segro has reached a tipping point. Segro's board has recommended to shareholders that they accept Prologis' £14bn offer. The deadline for a firm offer has now been extended to August 12. If the deal goes through it will represent a serious bet by Prologis on UK commercial real estate and the future impact of AI and cloud computing on the value of industrial sites. Attention now turns to whether Prologis returns with a firm offer before the deadline.

05 — INTERNATIONAL

EU regulators provide a kick to the Googlies

By this stage Google executives must be thinking about Brussels in their sleep.

On Thursday, Google was hit with €890 million (£760 million) in fines under the EU's Digital Markets Act after regulators ruled it had given its own shopping and hotel services preferential treatment in search results and prevented app developers directing users to cheaper subscriptions outside the Play Store.

The Commission has ordered Google to change how it displays search results in Europe and loosen restrictions on its app marketplace, arguing the changes will make it easier for rivals to compete and give consumers more choice. Google says the decision will make its products less useful. The company is expected to appeal.

🌍 Why it matters: it is another example in a consistent theme: American big tech innovators and European consumer-conscious authorities locking horns. The Commission has been more aggressive than most when it has come to sanctioning Silicon Valley. We await a potential Google appeal to see the next stage in this power struggle.

06 — QUICK HITS

European Central Bank decides to hold, not hike The ECB held rates at 2.25% despite renewed concerns over energy prices. President Christine Lagarde said she was concerned about rising oil prices amidst renewed conflict in Iran and the Houthi strikes on two Saudi vessels, but the ECB decided to hold rather than hike.	One more round on Andy The government has cut business rates for pubs, clubs and music venues by 20%, which will apply from April 2027.
You first. No, you Donald Trump has said the nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia depends on them signing up to the Abraham Accords, which seeks to normalise relations between Israel and Muslim countries. The Crown Prince has said better diplomatic ties with Israel depend on steps towards establishing a Palestinian state.	Indian protests continue Indian activist Sonam Wangchuk has reached day 26 of his hunger strike, in solidarity with student demonstrators protesting against the leak of medical college entrance papers.

07 — THE TAKE

08 — SIGN-OFF

And that's a wrap. We're done for the week and we hope you will be soon too.

Have a great weekend.
Sean